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Future Of SAF

10 October 2025

The MBR Explorer by the UAE Space Agency will study seven rocks in the main asteroid belt. Photo: UAE Space Agency

 

Fueling the future: The rise of sustainable aviation fuel
Introduction

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is at the forefront of the aviation industry's efforts to reduce its carbon footprint, serving as an effective and practical solution for cutting emissions now while keeping global travel connected. Unlike upcoming technologies like hydrogen or electric planes, which need major infrastructure overhauls and aircraft redesigns, SAF works seamlessly with current aircraft and fueling systems. This allows for immediate emission reductions of up to 80% over the entire product lifecycle. As the industry aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, SAF acts as a vital bridge between today’s operations and future innovative propulsion technologies, making it a key element in achieving long-term sustainability goals.

The UAE has positioned itself as a global leader in this transition by incorporating Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) into its comprehensive Net Zero 2050 Strategy and utilizing its distinctive strengths as an energy hub and international aviation center. Through collaborations with leading airlines, energy corporations, and technology enterprises, the UAE is advancing with extensive SAF production utilizing both bio-based feedstocks and synthetic fuel pathways powered by renewable energy and green hydrogen. 

Flagship airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are strategically advancing as innovation hubs for sustainable aviation. These developments integrate SAF deployment with cutting-edge green infrastructure and smart operational practices. By harmonizing government policies, industry collaborations, and R&D initiatives, the UAE is not only shaping regional standards but also setting a global benchmark for sustainable aviation leadership. [The upcoming Dubai Airshow (November 17-21, 2025) will feature prominent panels and demonstrations focused on propelling sustainable aviation forward.]

The SAF imperative: Aviation's next frontier in carbon reduction

Over the next 15 years, SAF is poised to become the primary driver for reducing aviation's carbon footprint. It is the key to helping airlines meet their near- and mid-term net-zero goals. Driven by regulatory requirements in regions like the EU, US, and parts of Asia, airlines are expected to steadily increase their use of SAF from less than 1% of today's global jet fuel demand to double-digit blending levels by the late 2030s.

Combined with ongoing advancements in aircraft and operational efficiencies, SAF is set to deliver the majority of near-term emission reductions. This will bridge the gap until hydrogen and electric technologies reach commercial-scale maturity beyond 2040. The market's rapid acceleration is clear: projected SAF deliveries are estimated to surge from 2.28 million metric tons in 2025 to a staggering 74.8 million metric tons by 2040. This growth is already underway, with SAF deliveries to airports having jumped by an impressive 453% between 2021 and 2024.

Several key factors are driving this accelerated adoption. Multi-year off-take agreements between airlines and producers are building market stability, while policy incentives like subsidies and tax credits are making SAF a more viable option. The rapid scaling of innovative production pathways, such as hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) and power-to-liquid (PtL), is also crucial. As blending and depot infrastructure expands at major hubs, it will facilitate smoother integration into existing supply chains, while increasing corporate demand for sustainable travel will further support market growth through "book-and-claim" systems

Scaling Up: Meeting Demand for Sustainable Fuel

Scaling up SAF production is a critical challenge for the industry, as current global output makes up less than 1% of aviation fuel demand. To address this, key efforts are focused on strengthening feedstock supply chains, expanding biorefinery capacity, and developing innovative production methods like power to-liquid (PtL) and alcohol-to-jet (AtJ). Achieving large-scale production requires significant investment in infrastructure and technology, but this growth is essential for airlines to meet their decarbonization goals by 2030 and beyond.

Fueling Growth: Strategies to Lower SAF Production Costs

High production costs—currently several times higher than conventional jet fuel—remain a significant obstacle to widespread SAF adoption. To address this, industry stakeholders are exploring several strategies.

  •  Scaling Up: Building larger facilities and optimizing feedstock sources to achieve economies of scale.
  • Innovating Conversion: Enhancing conversion efficiency with advanced catalysts and processes.
  • Driving Growth: Using financial incentives like subsidies and long-term off-take agreements to lower risk for producers

Additionally, innovations in carbon capture and hydrogen production are helping to reduce input costs. As these technologies develop and market demand grows, SAF is poised to become more cost-competitive, paving the way for a more sustainable aviation sector.

Fueling Growth: Strategies to Lower SAF Production Costs

Partnerships between airlines and SAF producers are essential for building a stable supply and demand in the long run. Airlines are increasingly engaging in multi-year off-take agreements, equity investments, and joint ventures with producers to secure their future fuel supplies.

These strategic collaborations offer producers the financial stability needed to expand production capacity, while enabling airlines to make meaningful progress toward their carbon reduction targets. Additionally, these partnerships often include upstream stakeholders such as energy companies and feedstock suppliers, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that accelerates market growth and mitigates risks across the entire value chain.

The Policy Imperative: Regulatory Frameworks and Region-specific SAF Pathways

Governments and regulatory bodies around the world are implementing frameworks to advance the development and adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Notable initiatives include the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation mandates, the US's tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, and various strategies in Asia and the Middle East that focus on local feedstocks and green hydrogen. These policies not only establish compliance standards but also provide powerful incentives to attract investment, foster innovation, and strengthen international collaboration within the SAF industry.

 

Conclusion: From Strategy to Scale - Building the Future of Sustainable Aviation

The accelerated adoption of SAF is being driven by two key developments: long-term production contracts and investments in blending depot infrastructure.

Multi-year SAF production agreements between airlines, producers, and energy companies provide financial stability for fuel suppliers, enabling them to expand refinery capacity and invest in advanced technologies like power-to-liquid (PtL) and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA). Simultaneously, contracts to develop blending depots and distribution networks ensure SAF can be efficiently integrated into existing supply chains at airports worldwide. These depots facilitate mixing SAF with conventional jet fuel to meet certified blending ratios, while also streamlining logistics, reducing costs, and guaranteeing consistent availability for airlines.

Together, these production agreements and blending infrastructure contracts are resolving distribution bottlenecks and creating the necessary ecosystem for rapid SAF adoption. As both parts of the value chain develop, airlines will gain dependable access to larger SAF volumes at more competitive prices, speeding up the industry's journey toward net-zero goals.

At Dubai Airshow 2025, SAF will take center stage with dedicated sustainability forums, live demonstrations, and industry partnerships showcasing ways to increase production and adoption. The event will emphasize airline–producer collaborations, new fuel technologies, and policy frameworks driving aviation’s net-zero transition. 


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